Odds-Bjorn? (That's a pun.)
The European wagering site Betandwin has posted preseason odds for World Cup ski jumping and men's and women's cross-country racing. Oddly (ha!), they don't provide XC odds for the distance and sprint championships - only the World Cup overall.
The women's list puts Marit Bjorgen (NOR) top, with almost-even 1.65 odds. She's followed by Katerina Neumannova (CZE) at 6.50, which seems fair given her lack of sprinting ability, and Kristina Smigun (EST) at 8.00, which also seems fair given her inconsistency. Julija Tchepalova (RUS) is at 10.00 and Virpi Kuitunen is at 12.00. I'd put safe money on Bjorgen, some on Neumannova, who's the next-likeliest to win the Cup, and then a few euros on Kuitunen (FIN), who last year displayed some Bjorgenesque form in both sprint and distance events and in both classical and freestyle formats. If the Finn can continue to race well at all distances from the ca. 1-kilometer sprints to the 10km standard race and add the longer distances like the occasional 30km, Kuitunen could win the whole thing. (See the final 2004-5 standings.)
The men's odds list is harder to parse. I don't think Axel Teichmann (GER) can win again, despite his 2.75 odds: he barely won the crown in 2005, and the German racers seem to be driven more for one superb season than several consistent ones. (Witness, despite his 7.00 odds for 2005-6, Rene Sommerfeldt's dropoff after his win in 2003-4.) If any German wins the Cup, it'll be Tobias Angerer at 13.00, and not only because he has the best name on the circuit: he also has chops in both free and classic techniques and both sprint and distance, and he seems poised for a jump up from his fourth place in 2004-5. I'd love to say that one of the Norwegians could win it, but their specialists are too specialized (see Hjelmeset, Odd-Bjorn and Aukland, Anders [34.00]), so only those with some dual-technique chops have a chance. My favorite racer, Frode Estil (34.00), competes too rarely to win it all (he prefers the cheap stuff, like Olympic and World Championship golds) and Jens Arne Svartedal (21.00) just doesn't seem to be quite fast enough to win enough races. So, in the end, I'd put my money on two guys: Vincent Vittoz (FRA) at 5.00, who almost won it all last season and who could easily pull off a Bjorgenean assault on all distances and all techniques, and Mattias Fredriksson (SWE) at 8.50 who won the Cup a few years back and seems poised to improve on his 6th last season. (See the final 2004-5 standings.) I'd also put a few euros on Andrus Veerpalu, but only because I love how he races.
For what it's worth, the ski-jumping odds seem dead on: no one was near Janne Ahonen (FIN) in the first half of the season last near, and few approached Matti Hautamaki (FIN) in the second half. Ahonen's the superior jumper of that pair; hence his 2.50 odds.
The women's list puts Marit Bjorgen (NOR) top, with almost-even 1.65 odds. She's followed by Katerina Neumannova (CZE) at 6.50, which seems fair given her lack of sprinting ability, and Kristina Smigun (EST) at 8.00, which also seems fair given her inconsistency. Julija Tchepalova (RUS) is at 10.00 and Virpi Kuitunen is at 12.00. I'd put safe money on Bjorgen, some on Neumannova, who's the next-likeliest to win the Cup, and then a few euros on Kuitunen (FIN), who last year displayed some Bjorgenesque form in both sprint and distance events and in both classical and freestyle formats. If the Finn can continue to race well at all distances from the ca. 1-kilometer sprints to the 10km standard race and add the longer distances like the occasional 30km, Kuitunen could win the whole thing. (See the final 2004-5 standings.)
The men's odds list is harder to parse. I don't think Axel Teichmann (GER) can win again, despite his 2.75 odds: he barely won the crown in 2005, and the German racers seem to be driven more for one superb season than several consistent ones. (Witness, despite his 7.00 odds for 2005-6, Rene Sommerfeldt's dropoff after his win in 2003-4.) If any German wins the Cup, it'll be Tobias Angerer at 13.00, and not only because he has the best name on the circuit: he also has chops in both free and classic techniques and both sprint and distance, and he seems poised for a jump up from his fourth place in 2004-5. I'd love to say that one of the Norwegians could win it, but their specialists are too specialized (see Hjelmeset, Odd-Bjorn and Aukland, Anders [34.00]), so only those with some dual-technique chops have a chance. My favorite racer, Frode Estil (34.00), competes too rarely to win it all (he prefers the cheap stuff, like Olympic and World Championship golds) and Jens Arne Svartedal (21.00) just doesn't seem to be quite fast enough to win enough races. So, in the end, I'd put my money on two guys: Vincent Vittoz (FRA) at 5.00, who almost won it all last season and who could easily pull off a Bjorgenean assault on all distances and all techniques, and Mattias Fredriksson (SWE) at 8.50 who won the Cup a few years back and seems poised to improve on his 6th last season. (See the final 2004-5 standings.) I'd also put a few euros on Andrus Veerpalu, but only because I love how he races.
For what it's worth, the ski-jumping odds seem dead on: no one was near Janne Ahonen (FIN) in the first half of the season last near, and few approached Matti Hautamaki (FIN) in the second half. Ahonen's the superior jumper of that pair; hence his 2.50 odds.
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