Blowing & Drifting

Forecast: Significant blowing and drifting, with the possibility of heavy accumulation in rural areas.

Sapporo World Championships - Day 10

Rather than write an account of the women's 30km mass start race, I thought I'd liveblog it, checkpoint by checkpoint...

starting line: 55 women are listed on the official start sheet for this last cross-country race of the World Championships. At the start, only one has withdrawn- Karine Phillipot of France, a good racer, but no threat to win. The mass-start format arrays the field in arrow-shaped rows of five or so across, with the favorites naturally in the front row. Virpi Kuitunen is in the center, flanked by her countrywoman Aino Kaisa Saarinen and Norwegian Marti Bjørgen, who hoppes to redeem herself after some abysmal performances at these championships. Next to them and in the second row are other racers who could win, place, or show, including among others Petra Majdic of Slovenia (a classical-technique specialist) and Polish speedster Justyna Kowalczyk.

3.75 km: At the second time check, 43 racers - virtually the whole field - is within 10 seconds of the leader, who is surprisingly Kristin Steira of Norway, already a medalist at the championships but who had to fight through traffic to get to the front.

5.65 km: Finally, the field starts to fall apart: at this fourth time check, 21 racers are within 10 seconds of the leader, the young Norwegian Therese Johaug. Kuitunen is in eleventh, five seconds back - perhaps a bit deeper in the pack than she might like, but in very good company.

7.5 km: A quarter of the way into the race, Kuitunen has migrated back to the front, where she's bracketed by Johaug and Steira but followed closely by Saarinen. Is this shaping up to be a duel between pairs of Norwegians and Finns? Majdic and Bjørgen are close, too.  And there are actually more racers within that 10-second gap from first place than at some recent checks.

13.15 km: It looks like Steira is making a move. Since the previous time check, she has cut the size of that 10-second group by a third, to just nine racers. And only Johaug in second and Kuitunen in third are within five seconds. Could this be an early breakaway?

15.0 km: Yes, we can say that it is. Kristina Smigun of Estonia tried to bridge up to the three leaders, but then fell back and now, at the halfway point, it's Steira, Johaug, Kuitunen. Saarinen and Smigun are stuck 5.4 seconds back, out of contact with the leaders but well ahead of the next group. I'm sure Kuitunen would dearly love her teammate to come up to even things out.

16.7 km: That didn't happen, and now Saarinen is in fourth, 11.6 seconds back of the three leaders. Steira continues to do the work up front, which may be a stupid move given that there's still 13,300 meters to go. Bjørgen has blow, and is 1:22 down. It's unlikely that anyone will be able to bridge up to the leaders now.

19.95 km: Nearly to the two-thirds mark, it looks like the front group has thinned. Johaug has dropped down to 4.8 seconds - a solid third place, with fourth-spot Saarinen at 25.7 seconds, but also a bad place to be since Kuitunen and Steira are only likely to speed up now. Can the youngster ski on her own for 10km to retain the bronze, or even get back onto the leaders?

22.5 km: With a quarter of the race to run, everyone continues to lose time to Kuitunen and Steira. The gap between third-place Johaug and fourth-place Saarinen remains substantial, nearly 20 seconds. If Saarinen knows that the Norwegian is up there drifting, she may be able to close on her, but she'd have to start making that effort soon.

24.2 km: Kuitunen and Steira are still paired at the front of the race, but it doesn't appear that the Finn has taken even one turn in the lead for many, many kilometers. Given that Kuitunen is a peerless classical-technique sprinter, this bodes very badly for Steira. And behind, Saarinen has cut her gap to Johaug down to 10.1 seconds.

26.25 km: Starting the final lap, Kuitunen and Steira are a half-second apart, and nearly a minute up on Johaug. But Saarinen is less than ten seconds behind Johaug, and can certainly see her ahead as they round the stadium. I think Saarinen will be able to catch and pass Johaug within the next 2000 meters.

27.45 km: It's almost the exact status quo. Saarinen's still eight seconds out of bronze, but the silver and gold look to be decided by a sprint - or a fall, if one of the leaders gets wobbly on the last pass over the hills.

28.15 km: Steira still leads Kuitunen, who must have ice water in her veins to resist making an attack. And Johaug must have taken something powerful at the last feeding station, because she's increased the gap to Saarinen to 15 seconds!

28.85 km: Steira has a 2.2 second gap! She must have used her whippet-like form to attack on the final hill. From this last time check, it's almost all downhill to the finish line. Who has the fastest skis? Can Kuitunen close, either on the descent or in the finishing straightaway? Steira has an excellent kick to the line, so it's no sure thing either way. Barring a fall,  Johaug has locked up the bronze - a stunning achievement for this young and unheralded racer.

finish: Kuitunen wins! And by a staggering 6.9 seconds! She must have descended well to get back onto Steira's skis, then used the final two small climbs to pass and accelerate away from the Norwegian, who would have been exhausted from having led since the twelve-kilometer mark. But what a finish! What a Finnish! With a gritty performance, Johaug takes the bronze, 1:22 back of Kuitunen and 19 seconds up on Saarinen in fourth. Petra Majdic was fifth, 2:17 down. Kuitunen raced brilliantly, and it shows on the results sheet. Despite the fact that Steira was in the lead, Kuitunen controlled the race, and reaped the reward. Onneksi olkoon, Virpi!

If the men's 50km tomorrow is half this exciting, it's going to be fantastic. My largely sentimental  picks for the big one (subject to change after I see the start list):

1) Veerpalu (Estonia), 2) Estil (Norway), 3) Fredriksson (Sweden)