Stage 7, the penultimate day of the Tour de Ski sees, all the racers starting together, for the first time in the tour. This “mass start” format is undeniably exciting, since everyone is bunched at least for the first few kilometers and often until well after that, if not right up to the finish line.
women’s 10km classical mass-start
start Women’s mass-start races like today’s 10km tend to see long breakaways by a solo skier or a small group: last year, then- and current leader Virpi Kuitunen broke away with a Finnish teammate to take a huge win. Such a breakaway is the only way we’ll see big changes in the overall standings. Given that today’s race is being run in the classical technique, Virpi Kuitunen, a great classical skier, must be tipped as the likely winner. What’s more, she has three Finnish skiers near here, all of whom are very creditable competitors and all of whom might – if team tactics come into play – be used to sweep up the bonus time on offer at 3.3km, 6.6km, and 10km – 15 seconds for the first racer over the line at those checks, 10 for the second, 5 for the third. For those three Finns, winning that extra time is less important than simply keeping that time from Kuitunen’s main rivals, Charlotte Kalla (Sweden), just 0.2 seconds behind in the overall standings, and Justyna Kowalczyk (Poland), 23.7 down.
1.7km The field is pretty tightly bunched at this first time check, with Kuitunen, Kowalcyzk, and Kalla up front along with Aino-Kaisa Saarinen of Finland – one of those Finns who might be valuable in keeping Kalla out of the bonus seconds. Could Saarinen and Kuitunen be trying to duplicate their breakaway last year, when they shattered Marit Bjorgen’s hope of drawing within striking distance of Kuitunen before the final climb?
3.3km A third of the way into the race, exactly such a breakaway looks to be happening. The two Finns are more than 7 seconds off the front, where they’re trailed by Katrin Zeller of Germany. Both Kowalczyk and Kalla are well off the pace – 10.1 and 11.5 seconds, respectively – but are running with a huge peloton there. Kuitunen has taken the 15 second time bonus at this time check, and thus leads Kalla by almost 30 seconds, Kowalczyk by almost 50.
5.0km At the halfway point, the peloton has pulled back the breakaway – or perhaps the escapees simply slowed after taking the time bonuses. Norwegian Kristin Stoermer Steira, a great young racer who loves mass-start events, is in the lead here, three-tenths up on Pirjo Muranen (one of those Finns) and 1.3 up on – of all people – Charlotte Kalla, who gets five seconds in bonus time here. Kuitunen is right behind Kalla, but Saarinen has dropped way back and Anna Hansson of Sweden is moving forward, perhaps to help Kalla up front. Only 5.3 seconds cover the top ten, which includes a number of dangerous racers. This one is still wide open.
6.6km Kuitunen has responded to the approach of the peloton. Now accompanied by Muranen in second, she goes first over the line here to take another 15 seconds in bonus time. Kalla has drifted backwards into sixth place, almost five seconds behind and out of the bonus time. The last third of the race is going to be a killer. Kalla must get back on terms with Kuitunen if she wants to limit her losses today!
8.3km And she does, in a big way! Kalla and Kuitunen are neck-and-neck with 1700 meters to go! After fading a bit, Steira is back in the top three, along with overall no. 4, Olga Rotcheva of Russia. The top nine racers are inside of ten seconds of the lead, so a late surge could still deliver the win to anyone in this big group. I’m going to predict that Kuitunen waits and then attacks in the last kilometer to take the win, just as she did in the 30km mass-start classical race at last year’s World Championships, where she defeated Steira.
finish – And she does! With what must have been a massive push, she wins by 4.5 seconds over Kalla! More importantly, she takes another more bonus time. She’ll have a lead of about a half-minute as they start tomorrow’s final climb – not much, but perhaps enough. Credit to Kalla, too, though: she fought very hard in her less-favorable technique to stay with Kuitunen nearly to the end and to prevent the growth of a big gap to the Finn. German Claudia Nystad takes third. Poland’s Kowalczyk blew up today, finishing 1:10 down to Kuitunen and effectively ending her chance at finishing on the final TdS podium, much less winning the event. Kuitunen hasn’t been at her best in freestyle events this year or this tour, as yesterday’s poor performance in the Asiago springs showed. She’ll need to do something special to hold off Kalla on the final climb tomorrow. Summary - video
men’s 20km classical mass-start
start With that exciting women’s race in the books, we turn to the men’s 20km, where no. 1 bib Lukas Bauer holds a big 77-second lead over untested Norwegian Tord Asle Gjerdalen and a whopping 1:45 lead over the Italian veteran Pietro Piller Cottrer. Nobody in the world has Bauer’s form in the classical technique today, but it remains to be seen if he can race well in the mass start format, which isn’t his forte. Team tactics may be critical in this race: three Norwegians (Gjerdalen, Tor Arne Hetland, and Petter Northug) are in the top five, and as yesterday’s sprints showed, they’re willing to work together to box out rivals, whether during attacks or at the bonus-time checks. Bauer, though, has two Czech teammates in the top ten, so we may see a Czech vs. Norwegian race-within-the-race today.
1.7km – Something insane is happening! There must have been a crash or other problem at the start, because the field is upside down. Bauer is already 20 seconds off the pace, buried in fiftieth position. Northug and Piller Cottrer are eleventh and twelfth, 4.1 and 4.4 seconds down to the race leader, Norwegian and classical-technique specialist Odd-Bjoern Hjelmeset. Gjerdalen is five seconds off the lead, Hetland almost ten. We could be seeing a big attempt by the Norwegians to break Bauer. Certainly, Hjelmeset is the man to do it: he’s the current world champion at the 50km distance, and a very good sprinter, too.
3.3km Almost the status quo. Noregian Eldar Roenning, who won the mass-start in last year’s TdS, is now up front with Hjelmeset; Bauer is still mired almost 20 seconds from the front. Perhaps he’s conserving energy for tomorrow’s hill climb? Fighting bad skis? Just plain tired? At any rate, none of the big guns took any bonus time at this check.
5.0km A quarter of the way into the race, the field has tightened again. German Franz Goering is up front, along with three Norwegians, but Bauer is now less than ten seconds back, having cut his deficit to the leader in half in just 1700 meters. Gjerdalen and Piller Cottrer are still up the trail from him.
6.6km The race seems to be stabilizing. Six racers are running within four seconds of the lead, then another 20 or so are within 17 seconds. It’s still too tight to call. Bauer is hovering about ten seconds out of first, but now five seconds ahead of Northug and a couple seconds up on Hetland. He’s negating any serious attempts to cut into his lead.
8.3km Not only negating them, but now actively repelling them – Bauer takes over at the head of the race! Gjerdalen has moved up with him, but trails by about two seconds; Piller Cottrer is down about four seconds.
9.9km Bauer cruises through in first at the halfway point, taking 15 seconds in bonus time. Gjerdalen, Piller Cottrer, and Hetland are all nearby. Though there’s 10,000 meters of snow to go, things look to be under Bauer’s control now. Unless Gjerdalen can team up with another Norwegian to mount a late and lasting breakaway, Bauer should be right there at the finish.
11.6km An attack on Bauer is just not in the works so far: Gjerdalen has drifted back, Hetland up. A number of excellent finishers are at the head of the race, including Russian Evgeni Dementiev, who is great at winning mass-starts, and Hetland, who just won a mass start in Russia. If there’s a surprise in the top ten, it’s Italian journeyman Valerio Checchi, who started the day in 26th place in the overall but who here is in third behind Bauer and Dementiev.
13.3km With bonus time on offer, Bauer goes first at this time check, leading Italians Giorgio di Centa and Pietro Piller Cottrer. That trio is off the front, with Hetland now in fourth, two seconds behind Piller Cottrer and a second ahead of Dementiev. Gjerdalen is now 10 seconds out of first.
15.0km Going into the last quarter of the race, things have tightened up again! The race-within-a-race turns out not to be one of nations-vs.-nations, but one of racers fighting for time bonuses and places that might mean better starting positions in tomorrow’s final climb. Bauer holds the lead, but now sixteen other racers are within 10 seconds of him, nine within five seconds. Nobody’s going to take time from him today, but anybody could still win this race.
16.6km No! Just as in the women’s race, the leaders respond to the contraction of the field by taking off: Bauer, di Centa, and Piller Cottrer are off the front, leading Checchi by almost nine seconds! It may come down to these three. Can anyone bridge up to them?
18.3km Yes, several can! Among others, Norwegians Jens Arne Svartedal and Odd-Bjoern Hjelmeset have come up, and here hold the lead over Bauer. The Italians are drifting backwards, but Dementiev and Gjerdalen are there again! What a finish this will be! I’ll predict that Dementiev takes it head of Svartedal and Hjelmeset, Bauer in fourth.
finish Almost! Hjelmeset wins in a photo finish with Svartedal! German Franz Goering comes from nowhere to steal third place. Bauer finishes seventh, but gives up no major time to his rivals. Not a glorious day for him, but a workmanlike effort to keep things stable ahead of tomorrow’s final climb. He will start 1:49 ahead of Gjerdalen tomorrow – a gap that one would think is big enough as to be unassailable. Last year’s tour champion, Tobias Angerer, had a much smaller lead over the no. 2 racer but held the lead all the way to the top of the Alpe Cermis. Unless Bauer crashes badly or blows up on the mountain, he should win the stage and the tour. Behind him, though, we should see some very exciting racing: Gjerdalen has only 34 seconds on Piller Cottrer, an excellent skater and something of a mountain goat. Behind Piller Cottrer, a group of four more racers start within 20 seconds, and then another group of six within about 40 seconds. (FIS summary - video)