Today's races are the last in Nove Mesto, Czech Republic. Both the men's and women's events are classic-technique distance races run from the traditional start format of 30-second intervals between racers, with the last-placed skier starting first and the best-placed skier starting last. These races are essentially time trials, and as such privilege the late starters, who can get complete splits on everyone ahead of them, maximizing the opportunity to accelerate and catch - in an abstract time-versus-time sorta way - the most direct competitors. As such, Lukas Bauer of the Czech Republic must be the favorite in the men's 15km and VIrpi Kuitunen must be the favorite (albeit the fourth-from-last starter) in the women's 10km.
men's 15km classical (individual start)
start - Lukas Bauer will start 30 seconds behind the penultimate starter, his countryman Martin Koukal, and a minute behind the Itailan Pietro Piller Cottrer. Bauer's likely to catch Koukal, a freestyle or skating specialist, early in the race (no later than 5km), and will probably snag Cotter, too. Every person Bauer catches is 30 more seconds in the bank for him. The best classic-technique racer in front of Bauer is German Axel Teichmann, starting 4:30 earlier.
0.5km - Only a half kilometer into the race, some early starters are setting the pace, with Russian Nikolai Morilov up by a second. Bauer is tied for sixth-fastest time at this split, 4.1 seconds down. His main competitors - Piller Cottrer, Italian Valerio Checchi - are 4.9 behind Morilov. Poor Koukal has already lost more than 5 seconds, which would put him 2:30 down at the end of the race.
2.6km - Now the race stabilizes: Bauer has charged up the standings to second,
7.5 seconds down on the new leader, early-starter John Kristian Dahl of Norway - a creditable classical-technique racer. Some other early starters are near the top of the standings here, but no other late starters - i.e., no other competitors for Bauer's golden bib - are anywhere nearby. This looks like another Bauer day!
4.25km - Yes: Bauer surges into the lead, now 12.5 seconds up on Eugeni Dementiev of Russia. Swede Mats Larsson is running well in third, 13.7 down, and Simen Oestensen is moving up the standings as well, now 21.6 down. In between are some other mid-range racers who might be trying to cut their gaps to Bauer. Surprisingly Teichmann is nowhere to be seen - he's not even listed in the live update. Has he dropped or crashed out?
6.35km - Bauer's lead is still edging upwards; it's now 14.1 to Dementiev. Russian Nikolai Pankratov is third, 17 behind Bauer, and Mats Larsson is 19.5 down.
8.0km - Well, this is almost boring. Bauer leads over Dementiev and Pankratov. Norwegian Eldar Roenning, though, is inching up the standings: having started the day well behind Bauer (35th in the overall), he's now running fourth, 28.5 down to Bauer but about 9 behind the two Russians at this split. With a bit less than half the race to run, he could well catch them, being a great classic skier. He'd also be dangerous in second place in the overall, with a sprint coming up on Friday after a rest day and then two tough stages on the weekend.
10.1km - Bauer maintains and Norwegian classic-technique specialist Jens Arne Svartedal moves up into fourth, ahead of Roenning but behind Dementiev and Pankratov.
11.75km - Svartedal moves into third, just barely ahead of Pankratov and just 2/10s back of Dementiev. He's putting in a big push here in the last third of the race!
13.85km - Svartedal into second, a half second up on Pankratov now, with Dementiev feeling the effects and dropping down to fifth. Mats Larsson has recovered and moved up to fourth, 1.3 out of third. Bauer is waaaay out front, 36 seconds up on Svartedal.
finish - Bauer takes his fourth win of the Tour de Ski! Svartedal captures second, edging Pankratov by 7/10ths of a second, and jumps up the overall from 29th (2:04 down) to probably second, about half that behind Bauer. Stunningly, none of the other late starters showed up today: the best-placed racer who started near Bauer was Tord Asle Gjerdalen, who finished more than 90 seconds down.
Bauer will take a huge lead into the sprint in Asiago, Italy, on Friday, and - after the usual chicanery with bonus time and such - will probably have a commanding position going into the last two distance races on Saturday and Sunday. Svartedal could well win the sprint, which would vault him further up the standings but probably not quite into first. It's clear that this tour is Bauer's to lose: with this kind of exceptional form, he's the odds-on favorite to do very well in the 20km mass-start race on Saturday and the 11km hill-climb on Sunday.
women's 10km classical (individual start)
start - Much more shuffling is likely in the women's race. As the overall leader, 20-year-old Charlotte Kalla starts last, 30 seconds behind Italian Arianna Follis (not a top-notch classic racer) 60 seconds behind Justyna Kowalzcyk of Poland (pretty good in this technique), and 90 seconds behind Virpi Kuitunen (perhaps the world's best classic-style racer). Kuitunen's plan must be clear: go hard, try to take back as much of her gap to Kalla, and get in position to capitalize on Friday's sprint, where she could take the lead again. Kalla has to maintain her gaps, or at best catch Follis, which would extend her lead, and monitor the time gaps to others ahead of her so as to prevent someone from gobbling up more than thirty seconds or so. Though only four racers are within a half-minute of the lead, nine more are inside a minute - which is about as much time as can be won in a 10km. The most dangerous such racer, starting four minutes ahead of Kalla, Marit Bjorgen of Norway. She'll certainly be trying to recover from her collapse yesterday and regain some time for the last three stages.
0.5km - Well, that was quick: 500 meters in, and Kuitunen already has the lead, 2.1 seconds up on her fellow Finn Aino-Kaisa Saarinen (who's had a poor tour so far), 2.2 over Kalla, and 2.6 over another Finn. Though the race is only 5% over, Kuitunen is more than capable of holding this pace, and could easily regain the overall lead today.
2.2km - It's not happening yet: Saarinen and Kuitunen are essentially sharing the lead, about six seconds up on the young Norwegian Therese Johaug, who started the day midway down the overall, 2:29 behind Kalla. For her part, the leader is still well within striking distance, 7.7 behind the Finns. Follis is bleeding time, as is Bjorgen, and Kowalcyzk is fighting to stay in touch.
3.8km - Status quo at the top, though now Petra Majdic of Slovenia is in fifth, running just behind Kalla. Johaug has cut her deficit to Saarinen to 4.2 seconds - she could be making a big move up the standings.
5.5km - Past halfway, and Saarinen is clearly in the lead now, 5.3 up on Johaug and 6.3 to Kuitunen. Kalla has fallen back to sixth now, trailing Justyna Kowalczyk and the Russian Olga Rotcheva, who was 31 behind Kalla at the day's start. It looks like Kalla is still in the lead overall, though - she hasn't given up so much time that anyone's overtaken her yet.
7.1km - Still Saarinen, Johaug, Kuitunen. Kalla runs 20 seconds behind Saarinen, but only 11 behind Kuitunen, which means she's holding a slim 6 second lead over the Finn. Everybody's picking up a few seconds on Kalla, but nobody is blowing her away.
8.8km - Here comes Kuitunen! She surges past Johaug into second - well behind Saarinen - and now has 19 seconds over Kalla, taking over first in the overall. Rotcheva has cut her deficit to Kalla almost in half. Kowalcyk has closed to Kalla, too, but now is well back of Kuitunen.
finish - Saarinen wins! What an effort - she's the biggest gainer of the day. Kuitunen finishes second, 2.6 behind but more importantly 23 seconds up on Kalla. Virpi takes back the golden bib, 25 seconds up on Kalla. Johaug wound up third, 13.3 down to Saarinen and 12 up on Kalla, but is still in twentieth place overall.. Bjorgen finishes 1:10 down, losing more than a minute to Kuitunen. She’s now in eleventh place, 1:48 down. Kowalczyk is in third, 42 seconds behind Kuitunen and just 3 seconds up on Olga Rotcheva, who moved up from overall sixth to fourth. After starting the day in twenty-first, Saarinen’s big win puts her in sixth overall, 1:17 behind Kuitunen, who is now perfectly positioned for the last three stages. Placing well in the freestyle sprint on Friday will maintain or extend her lead, and then she is likely to do well in the mass-start 10km classical-technique race on Saturday and the grueling 10km freestyle hill-climb on Sunday.