Neither possessing an internet link fast enough to watch Norwegian TV's internet stream of today's Tour de Ski races nor committed enough to wake up at five a.m. to do so, I'm instead here going to write a pseudo liveblog of the men's and women's pursuits by reading, hours later but without foreknowledge of the outcomes, the official feed of split times and other data, which is generated as the race happens but which I'm only getting around to reading now.
Men's 15km Freestyle Pursuit
start - Tour de Ski overall leader Simen Oestensen of Norway is first out of the gate today, having taken over the tour leader's golden bib with a strong performance in Sunday's sprint in Prague. Starting 12 seconds behind is the man he displaced as leader, the Czech Republic's Lukas Bauer, who is a consummate freestyle technician, who won both of the previous TdS events here at Nove Mesto, and who will have the home crowd's support. A few seconds back of Bauer are two dangerous Norwegians, Tor Arne Hetland and Petter Northug, who bracket the surprising Russian Maxim Vylegzhanin. A number of great racers are further back, but on this course it will be tough to close a gap of more than 30 seconds. Reconsidering my picks yesterday, I think the race is Oestensen's to lose, with Bauer likely to finish second and Northug to wind up third ahead of what will probably be a big bunch sprint.
2.6km - After essentially no change in the gaps at 500 meters, Luka Bauer has already caught and passed Oestensen. Northug, too, has made up a huge chunk of time, and is now just five seconds down to Bauer. Vylegzhanin and Hetland are hovering further back. Surprisingly, no big pack has yet formed; almost everyone else is traveling along or in pairs.
4.25km - Oestensen is hanging tough with Bauer, and Northug has now fallen back - too much too early? - to Hetland and Vylegzhanin, who form a group 15 seconds down on the leading pair. That's not insurmountable, but they'd have to get going asap; the race is a third over.
6.35km - Oops - there goes Oestensen, sliding now down to 5 seconds behind Bauer. Italian Giorgio di Centa has zoomed up from his seventh-placed starting position to third now, in a fuzzy quintet with Northug, Hetland, and two others. Is di Centa fit enough to catch Oestensen or even Bauer, nearly 18 seconds up the course?
8.0km - Now past the halfway point, di Centa has stabilized in a shrinking chase group, about 15 seconds down to Bauer. Oestensen is still traveling backwards, but holding onto second. Barring a fall (which could happen on these twisty trails), the race is Bauer's to lose.
10.1km - That must have been a brutal 2100 meters: the chase pack caught and dropped Oestensen, who's now down in fifth and well within the sights of others further behind. di Centa, Heltand, and Norwegian Tord Asle Gjerdalen make up the chasing group, a long 17 seconds behind Bauer. There's still no real peloton, but big clumps of sixes and sevens. Nobody's moving dramatically up, and Northug's done, all the way down in eleventh.
11.75km - Bauer's still in the lead, 13-some seconds up on di Centa and the two Norwegians. But down the course, Italians Pietro PIller Cottrer annd Valerio Checchi and Czech Martin Koukal are moving up, cutting their deficit to Bauer from 30-some seconds at the last time check to about 21 now. Any of these risers could break through the chase group and get after Bauer or at least the other podium spots - if there's enough snow left.
13.85km - Hetland has fallen well off the pace, leaving the podium to di Centa and Gjerdalen - and Bauer, who has an insurmountable 12 second lead with 1150 meters to go. Piller Cottrer, Checchi, and Koukal are hovering about twenty seconds down, where they're moving with French racer Emmanuel Jonnier. I think the podium is set; there's just not enough space for any of that quartet to catch di Centa and Gjerdalen.
finish - No! They did it! Bauer's won, but only 3.2 seconds up on countryman Koukal and 3.4 on Piller Cottrer. Did Bauer pull up to save energy for tomorrow's 15km classic race? Or was there a fall at the head of the race? Regardless, both di Centa and Gjerdalen were not only passed, but dropped by Piller Cottrer, Checchi, and Koukal. God, the Czech crowd must be going nuts with Bauer and Koukal finishing 1-2. Wow. And this vaults PIller Cottrer and Checchi into serious contention for the rest of the TdS - though of course Bauer's in the driver's seat. On the other hand, today's golden bib, Oestensen, blew up and finished more than 40 seconds down. I hope the women's race is half so entertaining.
Women's 10km Freestyle Pursuit
start - With Norwegian Marit Bjorgen taking a 10-second lead into this race, I think it's hers. She need only coast (for her, a speed well beyond other's top gear) to win. I don't think Italian Arianna Follis will be able to capitalize on her second-place start position, and I do think Justyna Kowalczyk (Poland) and Virpi Kuitunen (Finland) will be able to close their 12- and 14-second gaps to Follis - though not their 22- and 24-second gaps to Bjorgen. Those four are the only racers within 30 seconds of the lead, which is about the maximum distance that can be recouped in such a short race. Who knows, though - maybe Charlotte Kalla (Sweden) can duplicate her success here last weekend and come from 38 seconds down, or maybe Follis will be energized by the Italian men's big day and hold her position. We'll find out in about 30 minutes.
2.2km - I take back what I said! After no change at the 500 meter time check, Bjorgen's lead has dissolved: Follis has caught her already, and Kowalczyk is just 2 seconds back. Kuitunen is just 7.5 seconds down. That is a hell of a lot of sprinting firepower at the head of the race. I wonder if Bjorgen is intentionally holding up, or if she's pulling one of her all-too-frequent one-race-on/one-race-off tricks?
3.8km - Follis in the lead! Bjorgen is in second here, just beyond one-third of the way through the race, and Kowalczyk is there, too, 1.3 seconds down. Kuitunen hovers further back, about 8 seconds down.
5.5km - Bjorgen slips further back and lets Kowalcyk past into second, essentially neck and neck with Follis. And behind, Charlotte Kalla has caught Kuitunen and is now closing on Bjorgen, six seconds ahead. What an acceleration - she was almost 40 seconds down at the start!
7.1km - Kalla's right there in the lead, having now joined Kowalczyk and Follis. Kalla caught and dropped Bjorgen, who's drifting back toward Kuitunen. What a run by Kalla!
8.8km - And it gets better! In the last mile, she's blown up the lead trio and is now a full 6.6 seconds ahead of Kowalczyk, 7.4 on Folllis. The race should be hers! What a great way to prevent another sprint finish like the one she lost to Bjorgen this weekend: just catch and drop the leaders. Can she hold the lead?
finish - Yes, she can hold it and extend it! Kalla wins, 8.5 seconds up on Follis and 10.1 on Kowalczyk. In winning ther first World Cup race, the young Swede exactly exchanged time gaps with Bjorgen, who wound up in ninth, 38 seconds down. What a nightmare for the Norwegian. Kuitunen maintained her fourth position, 17.6 down to Kalla. And in fifth, the German Claudia Kuenzel-Nystad moved up dramatically from 12th to finish half a minute behind Kalla.
All in all, a big day of racing, and good precedent for Wednesday's classic-technique distance races. For the men, Bauer's fitness and classical prowess should keep him in the lead, while I expect Koukal, three seconds behind in second place, to fall back a bit. None of the three Italians in third, fourth, and sixth are known as great classic-style skiers, but of course they're not unskilled, either. If anyone is poised to move up, it would be Axel Teichmann, who is perhaps the world's best classical-style skier and is now just 35 seconds behind Bauer. Among the women, I think Kuitunen will advance again, perhaps all the way to the lead. Kalla is young and untested in this sort of pressure-filled situation; I see her falling off the lead. Kowalcyk and Follis aren't classic-style technicians like Kuitunen. But behind, Bjorgen could surge again, and any of the Russians who have crept up the standings could move up with a good race, too.