Blowing & Drifting

(Written on Friday, 1/25, from the FIS live-update site.)

Today's freestyle distance races, run from the traditional interval start that sends the racers out every thirty seconds, use a surpassingly difficult 5km loop - two laps for women, three laps for men. In addition to a hideous number of tight curves (including quite a few out-and-out hairpins), each lap includes 179 meters of climbing (roughly equivalent to a 50-story building), with the biggest climb a full 66 meters in height (18 stories). Given all that uphill, the winners are going to be the racers who can accelerate late in the race, when everyone else is tiring, ascending the last few climbs and then descending well on tired, shaky legs. That's made more difficult by the fact that this race is essentially a time trial: the real race is against the clock, although catching racers who started in front of you is a good way to gain time on the field. The best racers - those counted in the "Red Group," start at the end, which gives them the small but crucial advantage of knowing others' split times. There will be some good crashes today.  Lukas Bauer would win the men's 15 if he hadn't fallen ill and stayed home. Similarly, Katerina Neumannova would win the women's 10 if she hadn't retired last year to take charge of the Czech Republic's effort to hold the 2010 world championships. My picks for the podium spots among the racers who are on snow today:

1. Valentina Shevchenko (UKR)

2. Justyna Kowalczyk (POL)

3. Evi Sachenbacher Stehle (GER)

1. Axel Teichmann (GER)

2. Pietro Piller Cottrer (ITA)

3. Alexander Legkov (RUS)

1.7km At the first time check, descending one of the early climbs, Shevchenko is holding a narrow lead over Evgenia Medvedeva (Russia), and they have a significant gap over Olga Rotcheva (Russia). Shevchenko and Medvedeva finished fourth and second in Tuesday's pursuit, so both are on good form today. The pursuit winner, Kowalczyk, runs fifth at this early point.

2.8km At this check, on a steep pitch just below the high point of the course, Shevchenko continues to lead, now with 4.7 seconds on Medvedeva. Kowalczyk is now fourth, just behind Rotcheva's time.

5.0km Passing through the stadium, Shevchenko has lost a bit of time to Medvedeva: the gap at the halfway point is just 1.6 seconds. Only Kowalczyk is within 10 seconds of the Ukrainian, so unless Shevchenko blows up in the second half of the race, it should be hers to win. The toughness of the course is underscored by the fact that late starters - i.e., the best racers - are dominating the top twenty places on the course. This is no place for dark horses.

6.7km A third of the way into the course, approaching the high point, Shevchenko is extending her lead in dramatic fashion: she's now up by 14.5 seconds to Kowalczyk in second, 14.6 to Medvedeva in third. Rotcheva is fading badly, now down 27 seconds and out of it. Deeper down the field, Canadian Sara Renner is in 23rd place, the highest-placing North American.

7.8km Yep, this is Shevchenko's race! Working her way up to the top of the course she has almost half a minute on Kowalczyk and a hair more over Medvedeva. There's no question that the Ukrainian was the most fit racer on the course today! Behind her, Sabina Valbusa (Italy) is moving up; she's just eight seconds out of third: if Medvedeva continues to tire, and Valbusa can descend well, the Italian could steal the bronze - setting up what's expected to be a big afternoon for the Italian men.

10km Shevchenko wins easily! And Medvedeva takes second when Kowalczyk fades in the last 2200 meters. A dominant race by Shevchenko, who's clearly assumed Katerina Neumannova's mantle as the best female skater. Sara Renner holds 19th to stay the best North American; Kate Arduser finishes 39th, the best American.

1.7km Just after the last member of the "Red Group" of top skiers leaves the gate, this early timecheck already shows that the course is inflicting some damage. With many of the fastest skaters yet to reach this mark, the early leaders are Swedes Marcus Hellner and Johan Olsson. Canadian Ivan Babikov, who is the rare skier who often skis a "negative split" - going faster on the second half of the course than on the first half - is fifth as the best skaters climb up to this point. American Kris Freeman is in 11th, about 8 seconds off the best time so far. As the big guns approach, though, none of these earlier starters are maintaining the spots. One after another, the Red Group skiers take over at the top. Anders Soedergren of Sweden, starting eighth-from-last, holds the lead longest, about ten seconds up on some of the favorites. Alexander Legkov (Russia) is running second, Giorgio di Centa (Italy) third. Olsson and Hellner are lurking there in fourth and fifth. Perhaps the Swedes are going to show up the Germans and Italians today? Certainly Axel Teichmann, the last starter, is off form so far: he's more than 30 seconds down, buried in 53rd place.

2.8km Approaching the top of the course for the first time, Soedergren holds his lead - five seconds on di Centa, seven on Legkov. Teichmann is way out of it today! On the other hand, Pietro Piller Cottrer is in fourth now, 8.1 down to Soedergren. Babikov and Freeman are running 12 and 13, about 17 seconds back of the leader.

5.0km As the racers sweep through the stadium for the first time, Soedergren is going very well indeed. The man has no sprinting ability, so wins in mass start events, which tend to cluster the field, are rare. But he's able to hurt himself like few others, so he's a perennial threat in individual-start races against the clock. He's 4.7 up on di Centa, 7.2 on Piller Cottrer. Kris Freeman is in 14th now, twenty-five seconds down. Marcus Hellner is the only skier from outside the red group who is in the top 10. Petter Northug of Norway, who had a terrible pursuit on Tuesday, is steadily moving up the field: from 16th at 2.8, he's in 11th now.

6.7km Still Soedergren, still about five seconds to an Italian - now Piller Cottrer. The field is compressing a bit now, though: five skiers are within ten seconds of Soedergren and 10 within 20 seconds. If he can't hold this pace, there are plenty of racers who will move past him on the leaderboard.

7.8km Soedergren's lead narrows dramatically here, as the racers make the big climb for the second time: he's less than a second ahead of Valerio Checchi of Italy, who's zoomed up from fifth, 8.0 seconds behind, at the last check. Piller Cotter is in third, di Centa fourth - showing that Italian strength everyone assumed would be displayed today. Kris Freeman continues to hover in the upper teens, about 30 seconds out of first. And Hellner is up there, too - fifth right now.

10km The lead changes here as the racers pass through the stadium for the second and last time - Checchi, seeking his first World Cup win - takes over the lead by five seconds over Soedergren! Does he merely have the typically fast Italian downhill skis, or can he charge up the hills on the last lap and take the victory? di Centa and Piller Cottrer are three and four, and now Rene Sommerfeldt (Germany) has snuck into the top five.

11.7km Checchi has this race by the horns now - 6.7 up on his countryman Piller Cottrer, who is a hard finisher. Sommerfeldt has moved all the way up third, after having been in seventh one lap ago. Soedergren is moving the other way, slipping down to fifth now, but just a couple long seconds out of third.

12.8km Checchi is putting time into the whole field - 8.4 on Piller Cottrer, 12.3 on Sommerfeldt, 19.0 on di Centa, 19.1 on Soedergren. It's quite a display, really - at 6.7km, Checchi was eight seconds behind Soedergren, meaning he's put 27 seconds on him in 6.1km. Ivan Babikov is now running 10th, the best North American, and within striking distance of eighth. Freeman, on the other hand, is falling down the field to 28th now - and only a few spots up on Garrott Kuzzy of the U.S., whos' have the race of his life in 33rd. Kuzzy is just 17 seconds out of the last points-earning spot.

15.0km Checchi wins! His first World Cup! Sommerfeldt finishes second, 8.3 behind, Piller Cottrer in third at 13.3. Vincent Vittoz of France winds up fourth, by far his best result this season. Anders Soedergren finishes a hard-luck eighth after losing time over the whole last lap. Babikov in 12th, the best North American. Other North Americans are in the top 30, too: George Grey (Canada, 25th place, 1:07 behind), Freeman (29, 1:28).